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Petare FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

Petare FC
Petare FC
CANC
00:00
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
4/5/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 8Cocodrilos Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Petare FC48%
×Draw28%
Fundación Lara Deportiva24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petare FC
1.38
Fundación Lara Deportiva
0.89

Petare FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 77 away

creates per match

Petare FC
1.46
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

Petare FC
0.77
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

Petare FC+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petare FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Petare FC or draw
76%
Petare FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva
72%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
52%

Winning margin

Petare FC wins by 2+
23%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Petare FC 1+ goals
75%
Petare FC 2+ goals
40%
Petare FC 3+ goals
16%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
59%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
22%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Petare FC (draw refunded)
67%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petare FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 101 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petare FC attack 1.46 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Petare FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Petare FC scores more
48%
level
28%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
24%

Petare FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petare FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Match Preview

Petare FC face Fundación Lara Deportiva on April 5, 2020 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Petare FC host Fundación Lara Deportiva at Cocodrilos Sports Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.