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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Petare FC — Segunda División 2018

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
FT
1 – 0
Petare FC
Petare FC
3/1/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva43%
×Draw28%
Petare FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.27
Petare FC
0.98

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 102 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.45
Petare FC
0.84

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.11
Petare FC
1.08

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Petare FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Petare FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
71%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Petare FC
72%
Draw or Petare FC
57%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
19%
Petare FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
72%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
36%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
14%
Petare FC 1+ goals
62%
Petare FC 2+ goals
26%
Petare FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
60%
Petare FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Petare FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Petare FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Petare FC attack 0.84 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
43%
level
28%
Petare FC scores more
29%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Petare FC

Fundación Lara Deportiva beat Petare FC 1-0 in Segunda División on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara in Barquisimeto.