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Petaling Jaya City vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — Malaysia Cup 2019

Petaling Jaya City
Petaling Jaya City
FT
1 – 2
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
V. Ruventhiran 11'
M. dos Santos 29'
Bergson 14' (pen)
11/6/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 5Stadium Petaling Jaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Petaling Jaya City15%
×Draw19%
Johor Darul Takzim FC66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petaling Jaya City
1.00
Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.29

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 129% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

creates per match

Petaling Jaya City
1.43
Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.88

allows per match

Petaling Jaya City
1.71
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.58

finishing

Petaling Jaya City+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petaling Jaya City ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Petaling Jaya City or draw
34%
Petaling Jaya City or Johor Darul Takzim FC
81%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
85%

Winning margin

Petaling Jaya City wins by 2+
5%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Petaling Jaya City 1+ goals
63%
Petaling Jaya City 2+ goals
26%
Petaling Jaya City 3+ goals
8%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
90%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
66%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Petaling Jaya City (draw refunded)
19%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petaling Jaya City at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petaling Jaya City attack 1.43 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.00

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.88 + Petaling Jaya City defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Petaling Jaya City scores more
15%
level
19%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
66%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
V. Ruventhiran
14'
BergsonPenalty
29'
M. dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petaling Jaya City vs Johor Darul Takzim FC

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Petaling Jaya City 2-1 in Malaysia Cup on November 6, 2021.

Goals: V. Ruventhiran (11'), Bergson (14' pen), M. dos Santos (29').

The match was played at Stadium Petaling Jaya in Petaling Jaya.