Johor Darul Takzim FC 1–0 Petaling Jaya City

Johor Darul Takzim FC

FT

1 – 0

Petaling Jaya City

G. Cabrera 3'

9/30/2021

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC80%

×Draw14%

Petaling Jaya City6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Johor Darul Takzim FCExpected goals in this matchPetaling Jaya City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.49

Johor Darul Takzim FC

2.46

Petaling Jaya City

0.49

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 402% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 8 away

3.41

creates per match

0.50

0.48

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

3.41

Petaling Jaya City

0.50

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

0.48

Petaling Jaya City

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Petaling Jaya City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Petaling Jaya City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw

94%

Johor Darul Takzim FC or Petaling Jaya City

86%

Draw or Petaling Jaya City

20%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

58%

Petaling Jaya City wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

91%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

70%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

44%

Petaling Jaya City 1+ goals

39%

Petaling Jaya City 2+ goals

9%

Petaling Jaya City 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

93%

Petaling Jaya City (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

Petaling Jaya City away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 3.41 + Petaling Jaya City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.46

Petaling Jaya City attack 0.50 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

80%

level

14%

Petaling Jaya City scores more

6%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

G. Cabrera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff