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Peshtera Galata vs Partizan — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
CANC
15:00
Partizan
Partizan
5/14/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 31Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata56%
×Draw22%
Partizan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
1.92
Partizan
1.11

Peshtera Galata creates 73% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 106 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
Partizan
0.94

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
Partizan
1.92

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Partizan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
78%
Peshtera Galata or Partizan
78%
Draw or Partizan
44%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
33%
Partizan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
85%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
57%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
30%
Partizan 1+ goals
67%
Partizan 2+ goals
30%
Partizan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
72%
Partizan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Partizan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.92 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Partizan defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.92

Partizan attack 0.94 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
56%
level
22%
Partizan scores more
22%

Peshtera Galata at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peshtera Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peshtera Galata host Partizan

May 14, 2022: Peshtera Galata take on Partizan in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peshtera Galata host Partizan at Stadion Peshtera Galata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.