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Partizan vs Peshtera Galata — Third League - Northwest 2018

Partizan
Partizan
FT
5 – 0
Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
11/6/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 14Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Partizan70%
×Draw17%
Peshtera Galata13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizan
2.53
Peshtera Galata
1.00

Partizan creates 153% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 29 away

creates per match

Partizan
1.72
Peshtera Galata
0.69

allows per match

Partizan
1.31
Peshtera Galata
3.34

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par
Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Peshtera Galata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Partizan or draw
87%
Partizan or Peshtera Galata
83%
Draw or Peshtera Galata
30%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+
48%
Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals
92%
Partizan 2+ goals
71%
Partizan 3+ goals
46%
Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
63%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
26%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)
84%
Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 2.53

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Partizan scores more
70%
level
17%
Peshtera Galata scores more
13%

Partizan at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Partizan 5–0 Peshtera Galata

Partizan beat Peshtera Galata 5-0 in Third League - Northwest on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Cherven bryag.