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Peshtera Galata vs OFK Levski — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
FT
1 – 0
OFK Levski
OFK Levski
9/18/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 7Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata61%
×Draw21%
OFK Levski19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
2.11
OFK Levski
1.09

Peshtera Galata creates 94% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 100 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
OFK Levski
0.90

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
OFK Levski
2.30

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

OFK Levski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
81%
Peshtera Galata or OFK Levski
79%
Draw or OFK Levski
39%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
37%
OFK Levski wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
88%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
62%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
35%
OFK Levski 1+ goals
66%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
30%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
76%
OFK Levski (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.11

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
61%
level
21%
OFK Levski scores more
19%

Peshtera Galata at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Peshtera Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peshtera Galata vs OFK Levski

Peshtera Galata beat OFK Levski 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Peshtera Galata in Galata.