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OFK Levski vs Peshtera Galata — Third League - Northwest 2018

OFK Levski
OFK Levski
FT
3 – 0
Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
4/2/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 24Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

OFK Levski68%
×Draw18%
Peshtera Galata14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Levski
2.38
Peshtera Galata
0.98

OFK Levski creates 143% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 29 away

creates per match

OFK Levski
1.43
Peshtera Galata
0.69

allows per match

OFK Levski
1.27
Peshtera Galata
3.34

finishing

OFK Levski+0.00on par
Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Levski ↓

Peshtera Galata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

OFK Levski or draw
86%
OFK Levski or Peshtera Galata
82%
Draw or Peshtera Galata
32%

Winning margin

OFK Levski wins by 2+
45%
Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

OFK Levski 1+ goals
91%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
68%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
42%
Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
62%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
26%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

OFK Levski (draw refunded)
83%
Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Levski at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Levski attack 1.43 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 2.38

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + OFK Levski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

OFK Levski scores more
68%
level
18%
Peshtera Galata scores more
14%

OFK Levski at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "OFK Levski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFK Levski 3 – 0 Peshtera Galata

OFK Levski beat Peshtera Galata 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Levski.