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Peshtera Galata vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
FT
2 – 1
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
8/21/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 3Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata48%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv Mezdra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
1.77
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.33

Peshtera Galata creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 106 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.36

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.62

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
71%
Peshtera Galata or Lokomotiv Mezdra
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra
52%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
26%
Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
83%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
53%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
26%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
74%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
38%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
62%
Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
48%
level
23%
Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
29%

Peshtera Galata at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peshtera Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peshtera Galata vs Lokomotiv Mezdra

Peshtera Galata beat Lokomotiv Mezdra 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Peshtera Galata in Galata.