Lokomotiv Mezdra 0–1 Peshtera Galata

Lokomotiv Mezdra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peshtera Galata

3/5/2022

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 20Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra75%

×Draw15%

Peshtera Galata10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv MezdraExpected goals in this matchPeshtera Galata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

0.88

Lokomotiv Mezdra

2.70

Peshtera Galata

0.88

Lokomotiv Mezdra creates 207% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 29 away

2.06

creates per match

0.69

1.06

allows per match

3.34

creates per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra

2.06

Peshtera Galata

0.69

allows per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.06

Peshtera Galata

3.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Mezdra ↓

Peshtera Galata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Mezdra or draw

90%

Lokomotiv Mezdra or Peshtera Galata

85%

Draw or Peshtera Galata

25%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+

54%

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals

93%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals

75%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals

50%

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals

59%

Peshtera Galata 2+ goals

22%

Peshtera Galata 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)

88%

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Mezdra at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 2.06 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 2.70

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more

75%

level

15%

Peshtera Galata scores more

10%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff