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Peshtera Galata vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
CANC
14:00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
4/9/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 25Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata30%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
1.46
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.90

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.51

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
52%
Peshtera Galata or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
70%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
13%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
77%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
43%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
18%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
38%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 2.51 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
30%
level
22%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
48%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peshtera Galata host Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

April 9, 2022: Peshtera Galata take on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peshtera Galata host Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at Stadion Peshtera Galata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.