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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Peshtera Galata — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
3 – 0
Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
9/28/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 8Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa86%
×Draw9%
Peshtera Galata4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3.21
Peshtera Galata
0.60

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 435% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3.09
Peshtera Galata
0.69

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.51
Peshtera Galata
3.34

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Peshtera Galata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
96%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Peshtera Galata
91%
Draw or Peshtera Galata
14%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
69%
Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
96%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
82%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
60%
Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
45%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
12%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
95%
Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.51 · 45 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 3.09 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 3.21

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
86%
level
9%
Peshtera Galata scores more
4%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3–0 Peshtera Galata

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Peshtera Galata 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Gorna Oryahovitsa.