Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peshtera Galata vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
FT
2 – 1
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
5/30/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 34Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata52%
×Draw23%
Botev Vratsa II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
1.88
Botev Vratsa II
1.23

Peshtera Galata creates 53% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 61 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
75%
Peshtera Galata or Botev Vratsa II
77%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
48%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
30%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
85%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
56%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
29%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
71%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
35%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
68%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
52%
level
23%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
25%

Peshtera Galata at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peshtera Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Peshtera Galata 2–1 Botev Vratsa II

Peshtera Galata beat Botev Vratsa II 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Peshtera Galata in Galata.