Botev Vratsa II 3–1 Peshtera Galata: Result & Stats

Botev Vratsa II

FT

3 – 1

Peshtera Galata

11/27/2020

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 17Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Botev Vratsa II66%

×Draw18%

Peshtera Galata16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Vratsa IIExpected goals in this matchPeshtera Galata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.14

Botev Vratsa II

2.48

Peshtera Galata

1.14

Botev Vratsa II creates 118% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 29 away

1.61

creates per match

0.69

1.58

allows per match

3.34

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II

1.61

Peshtera Galata

0.69

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II

1.58

Peshtera Galata

3.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Peshtera Galata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw

84%

Botev Vratsa II or Peshtera Galata

82%

Draw or Peshtera Galata

34%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+

44%

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals

92%

Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals

70%

Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals

44%

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals

68%

Peshtera Galata 2+ goals

32%

Peshtera Galata 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)

81%

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 2.48

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more

66%

level

18%

Peshtera Galata scores more

16%

Botev Vratsa II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff