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Pesch vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Pesch
Pesch
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2/23/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 19Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Pesch40%
×Draw22%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pesch
1.88
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

creates per match

Pesch
1.76
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

Pesch
2.19
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

Pesch+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pesch ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Pesch or draw
62%
Pesch or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
78%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
60%

Winning margin

Pesch wins by 2+
21%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pesch 1+ goals
85%
Pesch 2+ goals
56%
Pesch 3+ goals
29%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
84%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
55%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Pesch (draw refunded)
51%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pesch at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pesch attack 1.76 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Pesch defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pesch scores more
40%
level
22%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
38%

Pesch at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pesch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pesch vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf beat Pesch 1-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on February 23, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage in Köln.