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BCV Glesch / Paffendorf vs Pesch — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
CANC
13:00
Pesch
Pesch
5/30/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 31Kunstrasenplatz Glesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf43%
×Draw22%
Pesch35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.91
Pesch
1.71

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 63 away

creates per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.40
Pesch
1.46

allows per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.95
Pesch
2.41

finishing

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par
Pesch+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf ↓

Pesch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or draw
65%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or Pesch
78%
Draw or Pesch
57%

Winning margin

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
23%
Pesch wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
85%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
57%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
30%
Pesch 1+ goals
82%
Pesch 2+ goals
51%
Pesch 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
55%
Pesch (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

Pesch away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.41 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.40 + Pesch defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.91

Pesch attack 1.46 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
43%
level
22%
Pesch scores more
35%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BCV Glesch / Paffendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: BCV Glesch / Paffendorf host Pesch

May 30, 2021: BCV Glesch / Paffendorf take on Pesch in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf host Pesch at Kunstrasenplatz Glesch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.