Pescara 0–1 Padova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pescara

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Padova

C. Faedo 57'

11/29/2025

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Pescara43%

×Draw24%

Padova32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchPadova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.35

Pescara

1.60

Padova

1.35

Pescara creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.39

creates per match

0.95

1.76

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Pescara

1.39

Padova

0.95

allows per match

Pescara

1.76

Padova

1.82

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Pescara-0.03on par

Padova+0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Padova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

68%

Pescara or Padova

76%

Draw or Padova

57%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

22%

Padova wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

80%

Pescara 2+ goals

47%

Pescara 3+ goals

22%

Padova 1+ goals

74%

Padova 2+ goals

39%

Padova 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

57%

Padova (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 11 matches

Padova away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.82 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.39 + Padova defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Padova attack 0.95 + Pescara defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pescara scores more

43%

level

24%

Padova scores more

32%

Pescara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

72

C. Faedo

Padova · D

8.6

Match Events

27'

Alessandro Capelli

40'

Jonas Harder

45+3'

Lorenzo MeazziGoal cancelled

47'

57'

61'

65'

71'

G. Cangiano← R. Tonin

71'

O. Okwonkwo← F. Tsadjout

71'

C. Buonaiuto← A. Seghetti

77'

R. Capellini← D. Faraoni

77'

F. Caligara← L. Meazzi

77'

F. Belli← J. Harder

86'

Marco Perrotta

87'

D. Baselli← L. Crisetig

88'

L. Villa← C. Faedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraPadova

Overview

56%Possession44%

25Total Shots12

1.67Expected Goals (xG)2.01

12Corners5

15Fouls21

Shots

25Total Shots12

5On Target5

10Off Target3

10Blocked4

17Inside Box9

8Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

369Total Passes298

290Accurate Passes214

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls21

0Yellow Cards5

4Offsides3