Padova 1–0 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pescara

C. Pastina 90'

5/1/2026

Serie B · Round 37Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Padova38%

×Draw26%

Pescara37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.37

Padova

1.39

Pescara

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.97

creates per match

1.18

1.56

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Padova

0.97

Pescara

1.18

allows per match

Padova

1.56

Pescara

1.81

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Padova+0.03on par

Pescara-0.01on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Padova or draw

63%

Padova or Pescara

74%

Draw or Pescara

62%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

17%

Pescara wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

75%

Padova 2+ goals

40%

Padova 3+ goals

16%

Pescara 1+ goals

75%

Pescara 2+ goals

40%

Pescara 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

51%

Pescara (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 7 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.81 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.97 + Pescara defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pescara attack 1.18 + Padova defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Padova scores more

38%

level

26%

Pescara scores more

37%

Padova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Sorrentino

Padova · G

8.9

Match Events

21'

F. Russo← A. Di Nardo

42'

Andrea Cagnano

45+2'

Pietro Fusi

55'

F. Caligara← L. Fanne

55'

G. Olzer← L. Meazzi

63'

Francesco Belli

65'

A. Seghetti← G. Caprari

66'

L. Di Maggio← P. Fusi

74'

F. Di Mariano← M. Bortolussi

78'

Flavio RussoPenalty confirmed

79'

Lorenzo Villa

83'

P. Ghiglione← A. Capelli

83'

J. Silva← G. Favale

88'

D. Merola← L. Valzania

90+7'

Davide Merola

90'

Lorenzo Insigne

90'

C. Pastina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PadovaPescara

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots11

0.63Expected Goals (xG)1.22

3Corners6

21Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots11

4On Target5

3Off Target5

4Blocked1

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

272Total Passes476

190Accurate Passes396

70%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

-0.11Goals Prevented-0.11

Discipline

21Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0