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Pescara vs Monza — Serie B 2018

Pescara
Pescara
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Monza
Monza
A. Colpani 47'
K. Balde 27'
11/9/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 12Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Pescara30%
×Draw24%
Monza46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pescara
1.30
Monza
1.66

Monza creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pescara
1.43
Monza
1.48

allows per match

Pescara
1.83
Monza
1.18

finishing

Pescara-0.10scores less
Monza+0.29scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pescara or draw
54%
Pescara or Monza
76%
Draw or Monza
70%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+
13%
Monza wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals
73%
Pescara 2+ goals
37%
Pescara 3+ goals
14%
Monza 1+ goals
81%
Monza 2+ goals
49%
Monza 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)
40%
Monza (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.83 · 9 matches

Monza away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.18 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.43 + Monza defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Monza attack 1.48 + Pescara defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pescara scores more
30%
level
24%
Monza scores more
46%

Monza at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
A. ColpaniMonzaMonza · F
8.7

Match Events

11'
Gabriele Corbo
16'
Keita Baldé
27'
K. Balde↳ L. Ravanelli
47'
A. Colpani↳ L. Ravanelli
58'
N. Squizzato← F. Caligara
58'
L. Sgarbi← G. Corbo
58'
G. Caprari← K. Balde
58'
M. Maric← D. Mota
59'
A. Oliveri← T. Corazza
69'
S. Birindelli← P. Azzi
75'
O. Okwonkwo← L. Meazzi
81'
L. Lucchesi← P. Ciurria
81'
N. Galazzi← A. Colpani
83'
A. Vinciguerra← A. Di Nardo

Possession

35%Pescara

Shots

7Pescara

Pass accuracy

48%Pescara

Statistics

PescaraMonza
Overview
35%Possession65%
7Total Shots19
0.61Expected Goals (xG)2.92
2Corners7
14Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots19
1On Target5
5Off Target9
1Blocked5
3Inside Box15
4Outside Box4
Passing
35%Possession65%
363Total Passes696
299Accurate Passes618
82%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1

Pescara 0 – 2 Monza

Monza beat Pescara 2-0 in Serie B on November 9, 2025.

Goals: K. Balde (27'), A. Colpani (47').

Monza controlled possession (65%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.