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Monza vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pescara
Pescara
P. Azzi 78'
Hernani 49', 34'
1/24/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 21Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Monza57%
×Draw23%
Pescara20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.85
Pescara
1.01

Monza creates 83% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Monza
1.67
Pescara
1.18

allows per match

Monza
0.84
Pescara
2.04

finishing

Monza+0.16scores more
Pescara+0.22scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Monza or draw
80%
Monza or Pescara
77%
Draw or Pescara
43%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
33%
Pescara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
84%
Monza 2+ goals
55%
Monza 3+ goals
28%
Pescara 1+ goals
64%
Pescara 2+ goals
27%
Pescara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
74%
Pescara (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.84 · 12 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.04 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.67 + Pescara defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.85

Pescara attack 1.18 + Monza defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Monza scores more
57%
level
23%
Pescara scores more
20%

Monza at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
HernaniMonzaMonza · M
9.5

Match Events

2'
Keita Baldé
28'
Gaetano Letizia
34'
Hernani↳ A. Carboni
45'
Lorenzo Lucchesi
46'
A. Colpani← K. Balde
48'
Pedro Obiang
49'
Hernani↳ P. Azzi
63'
L. Colombo← P. Obiang
64'
R. Tonin← F. Caligara
64'
L. Sgarbi← A. Oliveri
67'
Riccardo ToninPenalty cancelled
68'
M. Maric← A. Alvarez
68'
G. Caso← Hernani
75'
Leonardo Colombo
76'
Mirko Marić
78'
P. Azzi↳ L. Colombo
81'
R. Capellini← G. Letizia
83'
Andreaw Gravillon
84'
A. Bakoune← S. Birindelli
85'
D. Merola← D. Faraoni

Possession

50%Monza

Shots

8Monza

Pass accuracy

49%Monza

Statistics

MonzaPescara
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots20
0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.40
8Corners8
12Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots20
5On Target5
3Off Target10
2Blocked5
7Inside Box11
1Outside Box9
Passing
50%Possession50%
339Total Passes332
247Accurate Passes251
73%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls17
5Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Monza 3 – 0 Pescara

Monza beat Pescara 3-0 in Serie B on January 24, 2026.

Goals: Hernani (34', 49'), P. Azzi (78').

Monza controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 20.

The match was played at Brianteo in Monza.