Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pescara vs Lecce — Serie B 2018

Pescara
Pescara
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Lecce
Lecce
F. Del Sole 90+6', 89'
A. Gravillon 22'
L. Mancuso 3'
A. Tabanelli 67'
S. Palombi 45+2'
11/5/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 11Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Pescara35%
×Draw26%
Lecce40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pescara
1.30
Lecce
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

creates per match

Pescara
1.41
Lecce
1.45

allows per match

Pescara
1.36
Lecce
1.20

finishing

Pescara+0.00on par
Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pescara or draw
60%
Pescara or Lecce
74%
Draw or Lecce
65%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+
15%
Lecce wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals
73%
Pescara 2+ goals
37%
Pescara 3+ goals
14%
Lecce 1+ goals
76%
Lecce 2+ goals
41%
Lecce 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)
47%
Lecce (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 73 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.41 + Lecce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lecce attack 1.45 + Pescara defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pescara scores more
35%
level
26%
Lecce scores more
40%

Lecce at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. Mancuso↳ L. Memushaj
15'
Biagio Meccariello
20'
Marco Calderoni
22'
A. Gravillon↳ L. Memushaj
35'
Hugo Campagnaro
45+2'
S. Palombi
53'
Marco Calderoni
53'
Marco Calderoni
56'
José Machín
58'
A. Marino← M. Scavone
67'
A. Tabanelli↳ R. Fiamozzi
72'
L. Crecco← M. Antonucci
73'
F. Falco← A. La Mantia
76'
Biagio Meccariello
76'
Biagio Meccariello
77'
G. Monachello← Pepín
78'
F. Cosenza← S. Palombi
84'
F. Del Sole← M. Marras
89'
F. Del Sole↳ L. Mancuso
90'
Ferdinando Del Sole
90'
Antonio Balzano
90+6'
F. Del Sole↳ L. Mancuso

Possession

51%Pescara

Shots

9Pescara

Statistics

PescaraLecce
Overview
51%Possession49%
9Total Shots8
3Corners5
21Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots8
4On Target4
5Off Target4
Passing
51%Possession49%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
21Fouls15
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards2

Serie B: Pescara 4–2 Lecce

Pescara beat Lecce 4-2 in Serie B on November 5, 2018.

Goals: L. Mancuso (3'), A. Gravillon (22'), S. Palombi (45+2'), A. Tabanelli (67'), F. Del Sole (89', 90+6').

Pescara controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.