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Lecce vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Lecce
Lecce
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pescara
Pescara
M. Mancosu 37'
A. La Mantia 13'
3/31/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 30Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Lecce57%
×Draw23%
Pescara20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.84
Pescara
1.00

Lecce creates 84% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 72 away

creates per match

Lecce
1.98
Pescara
0.96

allows per match

Lecce
1.04
Pescara
1.71

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par
Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
80%
Lecce or Pescara
77%
Draw or Pescara
43%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
33%
Pescara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
84%
Lecce 2+ goals
55%
Lecce 3+ goals
28%
Pescara 1+ goals
63%
Pescara 2+ goals
26%
Pescara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
74%
Pescara (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.04 · 56 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.98 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.84

Pescara attack 0.96 + Lecce defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lecce scores more
57%
level
23%
Pescara scores more
20%

Lecce at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. La Mantia↳ L. Venuti
16'
Biagio Meccariello
33'
Giovanni Pinto
37'
M. Mancosu
46'
S. Bellini← A. Bruno
58'
Gastón Brugman
80'
Manuel Marras
83'
R. Sottil← L. Mancuso
87'
Ž. Majer← P. Tachtsidis
87'
F. Del Sole← L. Crecco
88'
S. Palombi← F. Falco

Possession

46%Lecce

Shots

12Lecce

Statistics

LeccePescara
Overview
46%Possession54%
12Total Shots3
6Corners3
18Fouls20
Shots
12Total Shots3
5On Target1
7Off Target2
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls20
1Yellow Cards2
–Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Serie B: Lecce 2–0 Pescara

Lecce beat Pescara 2-0 in Serie B on March 31, 2019.

Goals: A. La Mantia (13'), M. Mancosu (37').

Pescara controlled possession (54%) and registered 3 shots to 12.

The match was played at Via del Mare in Lecce.