Pescara 1–3 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pescara

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Cesena

G. Olzer 35'

D. Bisoli 64'

C. Shpendi 49'

J. Blesa 31'

8/22/2025

Serie B · Round 1Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Pescara42%

×Draw25%

Cesena33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.28

Pescara

1.48

Cesena

1.28

Pescara creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.65

creates per match

1.04

1.52

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Pescara

1.65

Cesena

1.04

allows per match

Pescara

1.52

Cesena

1.32

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.75scores less than expected

finishing

Pescara-0.22scores less

Cesena-0.75scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

67%

Pescara or Cesena

75%

Draw or Cesena

58%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

20%

Cesena wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

77%

Pescara 2+ goals

43%

Pescara 3+ goals

19%

Cesena 1+ goals

72%

Cesena 2+ goals

37%

Cesena 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

56%

Cesena (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 7 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.65 + Cesena defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cesena attack 1.04 + Pescara defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pescara scores more

42%

level

25%

Cesena scores more

33%

Pescara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Bastoni

Cesena · M

8.2

Match Events

31'

J. Blesa↳ T. Berti

35'

G. Olzer↳ L. Graziani

49'

C. Shpendi↳ S. Bastoni

59'

E. Kraja← D. Merola

59'

L. Meazzi← L. Graziani

64'

D. Bisoli

67'

Gianluca Frabotta

74'

G. Cangiano← L. Sgarbi

75'

R. Tonin← A. Di Nardo

75'

R. Celia← G. Frabotta

76'

M. Francesconi← S. Bastoni

79'

Andrea Oliveri

79'

S. Balde← J. Blesa

85'

E. Adamo← R. Ciervo

85'

T. Arrigoni← T. Berti

87'

L. Berardi← A. Oliveri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraCesena

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots19

3Corners5

16Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots19

4On Target9

6Off Target7

2Blocked3

4Inside Box17

8Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

488Total Passes415

410Accurate Passes337

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4