Cesena 2–0 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pescara

M. Francesconi 77'

T. Berti 25'

2/6/2026

Serie B · Round 23Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cesena50%

×Draw23%

Pescara26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.23

Cesena

1.79

Pescara

1.23

Cesena creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.18

1.27

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Cesena

1.53

Pescara

1.18

allows per match

Cesena

1.27

Pescara

2.04

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less

Pescara+0.22scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

74%

Cesena or Pescara

77%

Draw or Pescara

50%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

28%

Pescara wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

83%

Cesena 2+ goals

53%

Cesena 3+ goals

26%

Pescara 1+ goals

71%

Pescara 2+ goals

35%

Pescara 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

66%

Pescara (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 9 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.04 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.53 + Pescara defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.79

Pescara attack 1.18 + Cesena defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cesena scores more

50%

level

23%

Pescara scores more

26%

Cesena at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

T. Berti

Cesena · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

Michele Castagnetti

25'

T. Berti↳ C. Shpendi

29'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

45'

Tommaso Berti

46'

M. Piacentini← M. Mangraviti

46'

F. Russo← A. Di Nardo

61'

G. Castrovilli← M. Castagnetti

62'

D. Bisoli← M. Olivieri

62'

L. Meazzi← G. Brugman

62'

L. Fanne← A. Oliveri

71'

Matteo Piacentini

76'

A. Ciofi← M. Guidi

77'

D. Faraoni← A. Gravillon

77'

M. Francesconi↳ R. Ciervo

80'

A. Cerri← T. Berti

87'

Cristian ShpendiPenalty confirmed

88'

Davide Bettella

90+6'

Jonathan Klinsmann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaPescara

Overview

36%Possession64%

15Total Shots20

5Corners6

15Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots20

5On Target4

6Off Target8

4Blocked8

10Inside Box11

5Outside Box9

Passing

36%Possession64%

317Total Passes571

243Accurate Passes494

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls11

5Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1