Pescara 2–3 Ascoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pescara

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ascoli

D. Dessena 48', 41'

R. Bajić 90+2'

F. Dionisi 52'

S. Bidaoui 40'

3/16/2021

Serie B · Round 29Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Pescara45%

×Draw26%

Ascoli29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchAscoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.13

Pescara

1.46

Ascoli

1.13

Pescara creates 29% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 119 away

1.42

creates per match

1.04

1.22

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Pescara

1.42

Ascoli

1.04

allows per match

Pescara

1.22

Ascoli

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pescara+0.00on par

Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Ascoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

71%

Pescara or Ascoli

74%

Draw or Ascoli

55%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

22%

Ascoli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

77%

Pescara 2+ goals

43%

Pescara 3+ goals

18%

Ascoli 1+ goals

68%

Ascoli 2+ goals

31%

Ascoli 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

60%

Ascoli (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.22 · 74 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.42 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ascoli attack 1.04 + Pescara defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pescara scores more

45%

level

26%

Ascoli scores more

29%

Pescara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. Dessena

Pescara · M

8.3

Match Events

25'

26'

36'

36'

39'

F. Sørensen← C. Galano

40'

41'

46'

46'

48'

52'

55'

57'

V. Parigini← Marcel Büchel

64'

N. Rigoni← L. Memushaj

73'

R. Bajić← A. Sabiri

80'

G. Cangiano← S. Bidaoui

80'

F. Caligara← D. Šarić

82'

Mirko Eramo

85'

Pepín← M. Busellato

90'

Riad Bajić

90+2'

R. Bajić↳ V. Parigini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraAscoli

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots18

3Corners5

12Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots18

3On Target8

3Off Target6

3Blocked4

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box11

Passing

39%Possession61%

333Total Passes512

254Accurate Passes440

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0