Ascoli 0–2 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Pescara

M. Busellato 90+4' (pen)

C. Galano 87'

10/6/2019

Serie B · Round 7Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Ascoli47%

×Draw26%

Pescara26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.02

Ascoli

1.47

Pescara

1.02

Ascoli creates 44% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 71 away

1.17

creates per match

0.96

1.09

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Ascoli

1.17

Pescara

0.96

allows per match

Ascoli

1.09

Pescara

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

74%

Ascoli or Pescara

74%

Draw or Pescara

53%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

24%

Pescara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

77%

Ascoli 2+ goals

43%

Ascoli 3+ goals

18%

Pescara 1+ goals

64%

Pescara 2+ goals

27%

Pescara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

64%

Pescara (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 117 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.77 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.17 + Pescara defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.47

Pescara attack 0.96 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ascoli scores more

47%

level

26%

Pescara scores more

26%

Ascoli at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

M. Busellato

Pescara · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

33'

43'

70'

71'

84'

D. Bettella← M. Drudi

85'

S. Ingelsson← L. Memushaj

87'

C. Galano↳ M. Brunori Sandri

90+1'

E. Ferigra← N. Valentini

90+1'

M. Chajia← M. Troiano

90+1'

G. Borrelli← M. Brunori Sandri

90+4'

M. BusellatoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AscoliPescara

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots13

4Corners4

20Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots13

3On Target3

4Off Target4

3Blocked6

5Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

470Total Passes390

394Accurate Passes305

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2