Pescara U19 1–2 Lecce U19: Result & Stats

Pescara U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lecce U19

S. Oltremarini 39' (OG)

L. Trezza 65'

Joan Gonzàlez 18'

12/21/2021

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 14Centro Sportivo Delfino Pescara - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pescara U1929%

×Draw24%

Lecce U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pescara U19Expected goals in this matchLecce U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.66

Pescara U19

1.27

Lecce U19

1.66

Lecce U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.06

creates per match

1.37

1.94

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Pescara U19

1.06

Lecce U19

1.37

allows per match

Pescara U19

1.94

Lecce U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pescara U19+0.00on par

Lecce U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara U19 ↓

Lecce U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pescara U19 or draw

54%

Pescara U19 or Lecce U19

76%

Draw or Lecce U19

71%

Winning margin

Pescara U19 wins by 2+

12%

Lecce U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Pescara U19 1+ goals

72%

Pescara U19 2+ goals

36%

Pescara U19 3+ goals

14%

Lecce U19 1+ goals

81%

Lecce U19 2+ goals

49%

Lecce U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Pescara U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Lecce U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara U19 at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Lecce U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara U19 attack 1.06 + Lecce U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lecce U19 attack 1.37 + Pescara U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pescara U19 scores more

29%

level

24%

Lecce U19 scores more

46%

Lecce U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lecce U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

P. Sakho

14'

F. Scipione← S. Salvatore

18'

Joan Gonzàlez

39'

S. OltremariniOwn goal

45'

S. Sanogo

59'

L. Trezza← H. Salomaa

59'

G. Carrozzo← S. Oltremarini

63'

E. Hasic

65'

L. Trezza

72'

A. Kuqi← P. Colarelli

79'

A. Scialanga← D. Daka

81'

M. Braccia← C. Staver

81'

E. Scipioni← A. Mehic

83'

E. Scipioni

Pescara

Lecce

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Iervese

14'▲F. Scipione←▼S. Salvatore

72'▲A. Kuqi←▼P. Colarelli

81'▲M. Braccia←▼C. Staver

81'▲E. Scipioni←▼A. Mehic

Pescara U19 substitutes

ScipioneKuqiBracciaScipioni

Manager: V. Grieco

59'▲L. Trezza←▼H. Salomaa

59'▲G. Carrozzo←▼S. Oltremarini

79'▲A. Scialanga←▼D. Daka

Lecce U19 substitutes

TrezzaCarrozzoScialanga

Campionato Primavera - 1: Pescara U19 1–2 Lecce U19

Lecce U19 beat Pescara U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on December 21, 2021.

Goals: Joan Gonzàlez (18'), S. Oltremarini (39' o.g.), L. Trezza (65').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Delfino Pescara - Campo 2 in Città Sant'Angelo.

Pescara U19 vs Lecce U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Campionato Primavera - 1: Pescara U19 1–2 Lecce U19