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Lecce U19 vs Pescara U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Lecce U19
Lecce U19
FT
1 – 2
Pescara U19
Pescara U19
5/29/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 22Campo Sportivo Kick Off

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lecce U1954%
×Draw22%
Pescara U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce U19
1.94
Pescara U19
1.21

Lecce U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 72 away

creates per match

Lecce U19
2.17
Pescara U19
1.75

allows per match

Lecce U19
0.67
Pescara U19
1.71

finishing

Lecce U19+0.00on par
Pescara U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce U19 ↓

Pescara U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lecce U19 or draw
76%
Lecce U19 or Pescara U19
78%
Draw or Pescara U19
46%

Winning margin

Lecce U19 wins by 2+
31%
Pescara U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lecce U19 1+ goals
86%
Lecce U19 2+ goals
58%
Lecce U19 3+ goals
30%
Pescara U19 1+ goals
70%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
34%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lecce U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce U19 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Pescara U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce U19 attack 2.17 + Pescara U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.94

Pescara U19 attack 1.75 + Lecce U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lecce U19 scores more
54%
level
22%
Pescara U19 scores more
24%

Lecce U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lecce U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lecce U19 vs Pescara U19

Pescara U19 beat Lecce U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Kick Off in Cavallino.