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Perun Kresna vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
FT
1 – 0
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
10/17/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 11Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Perun Kresna46%
×Draw24%
Granit Vladaya30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perun Kresna
1.68
Granit Vladaya
1.33

Perun Kresna creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 70 away

creates per match

Perun Kresna
0.73
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Perun Kresna
1.92
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Perun Kresna+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perun Kresna ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Perun Kresna or draw
70%
Perun Kresna or Granit Vladaya
76%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
54%

Winning margin

Perun Kresna wins by 2+
24%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Perun Kresna 1+ goals
81%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
50%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
24%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
74%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
38%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
60%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perun Kresna at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perun Kresna attack 0.73 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.68

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Perun Kresna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Perun Kresna scores more
46%
level
24%
Granit Vladaya scores more
30%

Perun Kresna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Perun Kresna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Perun Kresna 1–0 Granit Vladaya

Perun Kresna beat Granit Vladaya 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kresna.