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Granit Vladaya vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
FT
3 – 1
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
4/24/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 28Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Granit Vladaya55%
×Draw23%
Perun Kresna22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granit Vladaya
1.86
Perun Kresna
1.08

Granit Vladaya creates 72% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 26 away

creates per match

Granit Vladaya
1.14
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Granit Vladaya
1.59
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw
78%
Granit Vladaya or Perun Kresna
77%
Draw or Perun Kresna
45%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
32%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
84%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
55%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
28%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
66%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
29%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
72%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.86

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more
55%
level
23%
Perun Kresna scores more
22%

Granit Vladaya at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Granit Vladaya 3–1 Perun Kresna

Granit Vladaya beat Perun Kresna 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vladaia in Vladaya.