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Perun Kresna vs FK Minyor Pernik — Third League - Southwest 2018

Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
CANC
00:00
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
3/14/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Perun Kresna18%
×Draw24%
FK Minyor Pernik59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perun Kresna
0.81
FK Minyor Pernik
1.71

FK Minyor Pernik creates 111% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Perun Kresna
0.73
FK Minyor Pernik
1.49

allows per match

Perun Kresna
1.92
FK Minyor Pernik
0.89

finishing

Perun Kresna+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perun Kresna ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Perun Kresna or draw
41%
Perun Kresna or FK Minyor Pernik
76%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
82%

Winning margin

Perun Kresna wins by 2+
5%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Perun Kresna 1+ goals
56%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
19%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
5%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
82%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
51%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
23%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perun Kresna at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perun Kresna attack 0.73 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Perun Kresna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Perun Kresna scores more
18%
level
24%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
59%

FK Minyor Pernik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Perun Kresna vs FK Minyor Pernik — Match Preview

Perun Kresna face FK Minyor Pernik on March 14, 2020 in this Third League - Southwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Perun Kresna host FK Minyor Pernik at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.