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FK Minyor Pernik vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
FT
5 – 0
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
8/24/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 4Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik76%
×Draw16%
Perun Kresna8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
2.42
Perun Kresna
0.66

FK Minyor Pernik creates 267% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 26 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
2.25
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.73
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
92%
FK Minyor Pernik or Perun Kresna
84%
Draw or Perun Kresna
24%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
53%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
91%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
69%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
43%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
48%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
14%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
90%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.42

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
76%
level
16%
Perun Kresna scores more
8%

FK Minyor Pernik at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs Perun Kresna

FK Minyor Pernik beat Perun Kresna 5-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.