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Perun Kresna vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
FT
1 – 3
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
11/9/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 14Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Perun Kresna23%
×Draw24%
Chavdar Etropole53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perun Kresna
1.04
Chavdar Etropole
1.73

Chavdar Etropole creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 87 away

creates per match

Perun Kresna
0.73
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Perun Kresna
1.92
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Perun Kresna+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perun Kresna ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Perun Kresna or draw
47%
Perun Kresna or Chavdar Etropole
76%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
77%

Winning margin

Perun Kresna wins by 2+
8%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Perun Kresna 1+ goals
65%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
28%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
9%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
82%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
52%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
30%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perun Kresna at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perun Kresna attack 0.73 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Perun Kresna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Perun Kresna scores more
23%
level
24%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
53%

Chavdar Etropole at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perun Kresna vs Chavdar Etropole

Chavdar Etropole beat Perun Kresna 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kresna.