Chavdar Etropole 3–1 Perun Kresna: Result & Stats

Chavdar Etropole

FT

3 – 1

Perun Kresna

9/26/2020

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 8Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chavdar Etropole73%

×Draw17%

Perun Kresna10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chavdar EtropoleExpected goals in this matchPerun Kresna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.71

Chavdar Etropole

2.33

Perun Kresna

0.71

Chavdar Etropole creates 228% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 26 away

2.08

creates per match

0.58

0.84

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole

2.08

Perun Kresna

0.58

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole

0.84

Perun Kresna

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Perun Kresna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw

90%

Chavdar Etropole or Perun Kresna

83%

Draw or Perun Kresna

27%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

50%

Perun Kresna wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

90%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

67%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

41%

Perun Kresna 1+ goals

51%

Perun Kresna 2+ goals

16%

Perun Kresna 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

88%

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.33

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more

73%

level

17%

Perun Kresna scores more

10%

Chavdar Etropole at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff