Perun Kresna 2–1 Balkan Botevgrad: Result & Stats

Perun Kresna

FT

2 – 1

Balkan Botevgrad

9/28/2019

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Perun Kresna30%

×Draw25%

Balkan Botevgrad46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perun KresnaExpected goals in this matchBalkan Botevgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.59

Perun Kresna

1.23

Balkan Botevgrad

1.59

Balkan Botevgrad creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 131 away

0.73

creates per match

1.27

1.92

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Perun Kresna

0.73

Balkan Botevgrad

1.27

allows per match

Perun Kresna

1.92

Balkan Botevgrad

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perun Kresna ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Perun Kresna or draw

54%

Perun Kresna or Balkan Botevgrad

75%

Draw or Balkan Botevgrad

70%

Winning margin

Perun Kresna wins by 2+

12%

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Perun Kresna 1+ goals

71%

Perun Kresna 2+ goals

35%

Perun Kresna 3+ goals

13%

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals

80%

Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals

47%

Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)

39%

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perun Kresna at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perun Kresna attack 0.73 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.23

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Perun Kresna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Perun Kresna scores more

30%

level

25%

Balkan Botevgrad scores more

46%

Balkan Botevgrad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff