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Balkan Botevgrad vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
FT
7 – 1
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
2/27/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 19Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad68%
×Draw19%
Perun Kresna13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
2.23
Perun Kresna
0.86

Balkan Botevgrad creates 159% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 26 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
87%
Balkan Botevgrad or Perun Kresna
81%
Draw or Perun Kresna
32%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
44%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
89%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
65%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
38%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
58%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
21%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
84%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.23

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
68%
level
19%
Perun Kresna scores more
13%

Balkan Botevgrad at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balkan Botevgrad vs Perun Kresna

Balkan Botevgrad beat Perun Kresna 7-1 in Third League - Southwest on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Borislav in Parvomay.