Perugia 1–1 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie B

Perugia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hellas Verona

4/25/2017

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Perugia37%

×Draw28%

Hellas Verona35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PerugiaExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.14

Perugia

1.19

Hellas Verona

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 21 away

1.14

creates per match

1.19

1.09

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Perugia

1.14

Hellas Verona

1.19

allows per match

Perugia

1.09

Hellas Verona

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Perugia or draw

65%

Perugia or Hellas Verona

72%

Draw or Hellas Verona

63%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+

16%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals

70%

Perugia 2+ goals

33%

Perugia 3+ goals

12%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

68%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

32%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)

52%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.14 + Hellas Verona defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hellas Verona attack 1.19 + Perugia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Perugia scores more

37%

level

28%

Hellas Verona scores more

35%

Perugia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Perugia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff