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Hellas Verona vs Perugia — Serie B 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Perugia
Perugia
S. Di Carmine 51'
L. Henderson 42'
F. Melchiorri 26'
10/27/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 9Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hellas Verona44%
×Draw26%
Perugia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.47
Perugia
1.18

Hellas Verona creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 77 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.62
Perugia
1.12

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.24
Perugia
1.32

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Perugia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
70%
Hellas Verona or Perugia
74%
Draw or Perugia
56%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
21%
Perugia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
77%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
43%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
18%
Perugia 1+ goals
69%
Perugia 2+ goals
33%
Perugia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
59%
Perugia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.62 + Perugia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Perugia attack 1.12 + Hellas Verona defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
44%
level
26%
Perugia scores more
30%

Hellas Verona at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
F. Melchiorri↳ L. Vido
42'
L. Henderson
45'
Santiago Colombatto
51'
S. Di Carmine↳ L. Henderson
55'
P. Dawidowicz← M. Zaccagni
70'
Ľ. Tupta← K. Laribi
71'
P. Mazzocchi← P. Ngawa
75'
Samuel Gustafson← L. Henderson
79'
N. Falasco← G. Felicioli
86'
A. Bianchimano← V. Verre
88'
Nicola Falasco

Possession

58%Hellas

Shots

10Hellas

Statistics

HellasPerugia
Overview
58%Possession42%
10Total Shots15
10Corners5
14Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots15
4On Target8
6Off Target7
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Perugia

Hellas Verona beat Perugia 2-1 in Serie B on October 27, 2018.

Goals: F. Melchiorri (26'), L. Henderson (42'), S. Di Carmine (51').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.