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Perth RedStar vs Balcatta — Western Australia NPL 2026

Perth RedStar
Perth RedStar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Balcatta
Balcatta
3/23/2024Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 2RedStar Arena A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Perth RedStar56%
×Draw21%
Balcatta23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth RedStar
2.08
Balcatta
1.25

Perth RedStar creates 66% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 85 away

creates per match

Perth RedStar
2.11
Balcatta
1.24

allows per match

Perth RedStar
1.25
Balcatta
2.06

finishing

Perth RedStar+0.00on par
Balcatta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth RedStar ↓

Balcatta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Perth RedStar or draw
77%
Perth RedStar or Balcatta
79%
Draw or Balcatta
44%

Winning margin

Perth RedStar wins by 2+
34%
Balcatta wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Perth RedStar 1+ goals
87%
Perth RedStar 2+ goals
61%
Perth RedStar 3+ goals
34%
Balcatta 1+ goals
71%
Balcatta 2+ goals
36%
Balcatta 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Perth RedStar (draw refunded)
71%
Balcatta (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth RedStar at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Balcatta away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth RedStar attack 2.11 + Balcatta defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.08

Balcatta attack 1.24 + Perth RedStar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Perth RedStar scores more
56%
level
21%
Balcatta scores more
23%

Perth RedStar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Perth RedStar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perth RedStar vs Balcatta

Perth RedStar beat Balcatta 2-1 in Western Australia NPL on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at RedStar Arena A in Perth.