Balcatta 2–4 Perth RedStar: Result & Stats

Balcatta

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Perth RedStar

4/25/2026

Western Australia NPL · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Balcatta26%

×Draw23%

Perth RedStar51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BalcattaExpected goals in this matchPerth RedStar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.89

Balcatta

1.29

Perth RedStar

1.89

Perth RedStar creates 47% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 54 away

1.28

creates per match

2.04

1.73

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Balcatta

1.28

Perth RedStar

2.04

allows per match

Balcatta

1.73

Perth RedStar

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balcatta+0.00on par

Perth RedStar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balcatta ↓

Perth RedStar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Balcatta or draw

49%

Balcatta or Perth RedStar

77%

Draw or Perth RedStar

74%

Winning margin

Balcatta wins by 2+

11%

Perth RedStar wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Balcatta 1+ goals

72%

Balcatta 2+ goals

37%

Balcatta 3+ goals

14%

Perth RedStar 1+ goals

85%

Perth RedStar 2+ goals

56%

Perth RedStar 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Balcatta (draw refunded)

34%

Perth RedStar (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balcatta at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.73 · 82 matches

Perth RedStar away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balcatta attack 1.28 + Perth RedStar defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Perth RedStar attack 2.04 + Balcatta defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Balcatta scores more

26%

level

23%

Perth RedStar scores more

51%

Perth RedStar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Perth RedStar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff