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Perth Glory II vs Inglewood United — Western Australia NPL 2026

Perth Glory II
Perth Glory II
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Inglewood United
Inglewood United
6/15/2024Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 12State Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Perth Glory II43%
×Draw21%
Inglewood United36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth Glory II
2.02
Inglewood United
1.83

Perth Glory II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 65 away

creates per match

Perth Glory II
1.94
Inglewood United
1.74

allows per match

Perth Glory II
1.93
Inglewood United
2.11

finishing

Perth Glory II+0.00on par
Inglewood United+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory II ↓

Inglewood United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Perth Glory II or draw
64%
Perth Glory II or Inglewood United
79%
Draw or Inglewood United
57%

Winning margin

Perth Glory II wins by 2+
24%
Inglewood United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Perth Glory II 1+ goals
87%
Perth Glory II 2+ goals
60%
Perth Glory II 3+ goals
33%
Inglewood United 1+ goals
84%
Inglewood United 2+ goals
54%
Inglewood United 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory II (draw refunded)
55%
Inglewood United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.93 · 82 matches

Inglewood United away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.11 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory II attack 1.94 + Inglewood United defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.02

Inglewood United attack 1.74 + Perth Glory II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Perth Glory II scores more
43%
level
21%
Inglewood United scores more
36%

Perth Glory II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Perth Glory II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perth Glory II vs Inglewood United

Inglewood United beat Perth Glory II 6-1 in Western Australia NPL on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at State Football Centre in Perth.