Inglewood United 4–3 Perth Glory II: Result & Stats

Inglewood United

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Perth Glory II

4/15/2023

Western Australia NPL · Round 5Perth Plasterboard Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Inglewood United41%

×Draw23%

Perth Glory II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inglewood UnitedExpected goals in this matchPerth Glory II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.59

Inglewood United

1.69

Perth Glory II

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 86 away

1.38

creates per match

1.63

1.55

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Inglewood United

1.38

Perth Glory II

1.63

allows per match

Inglewood United

1.55

Perth Glory II

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inglewood United+0.00on par

Perth Glory II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inglewood United ↓

Perth Glory II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Inglewood United or draw

64%

Inglewood United or Perth Glory II

77%

Draw or Perth Glory II

59%

Winning margin

Inglewood United wins by 2+

21%

Perth Glory II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Inglewood United 1+ goals

82%

Inglewood United 2+ goals

50%

Inglewood United 3+ goals

24%

Perth Glory II 1+ goals

80%

Perth Glory II 2+ goals

47%

Perth Glory II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Inglewood United (draw refunded)

53%

Perth Glory II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inglewood United at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

Perth Glory II away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inglewood United attack 1.38 + Perth Glory II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.69

Perth Glory II attack 1.63 + Inglewood United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Inglewood United scores more

41%

level

23%

Perth Glory II scores more

36%

Inglewood United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inglewood United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff