Perth Glory II 1–1 Floreat Athena: Result & Stats

Perth Glory II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Floreat Athena

3/23/2024

Western Australia NPL · Round 2State Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Perth Glory II37%

×Draw22%

Floreat Athena41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth Glory IIExpected goals in this matchFloreat Athena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.88

Perth Glory II

1.78

Floreat Athena

1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 78 away

1.94

creates per match

1.82

1.93

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Perth Glory II

1.94

Floreat Athena

1.82

allows per match

Perth Glory II

1.93

Floreat Athena

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth Glory II+0.00on par

Floreat Athena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory II ↓

Floreat Athena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Perth Glory II or draw

59%

Perth Glory II or Floreat Athena

78%

Draw or Floreat Athena

63%

Winning margin

Perth Glory II wins by 2+

19%

Floreat Athena wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Perth Glory II 1+ goals

83%

Perth Glory II 2+ goals

53%

Perth Glory II 3+ goals

26%

Floreat Athena 1+ goals

85%

Floreat Athena 2+ goals

56%

Floreat Athena 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory II (draw refunded)

47%

Floreat Athena (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.93 · 82 matches

Floreat Athena away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.63 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory II attack 1.94 + Floreat Athena defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.78

Floreat Athena attack 1.82 + Perth Glory II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Perth Glory II scores more

37%

level

22%

Floreat Athena scores more

41%

Floreat Athena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Floreat Athena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff