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Floreat Athena vs Perth Glory II — Western Australia NPL 2026

Floreat Athena
Floreat Athena
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Perth Glory II
Perth Glory II
6/22/2024Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 13E & D Litis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Floreat Athena45%
×Draw22%
Perth Glory II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floreat Athena
1.95
Perth Glory II
1.63

Floreat Athena creates 20% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 86 away

creates per match

Floreat Athena
1.90
Perth Glory II
1.63

allows per match

Floreat Athena
1.63
Perth Glory II
2.01

finishing

Floreat Athena+0.00on par
Perth Glory II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreat Athena ↓

Perth Glory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Floreat Athena or draw
67%
Floreat Athena or Perth Glory II
78%
Draw or Perth Glory II
55%

Winning margin

Floreat Athena wins by 2+
25%
Perth Glory II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Floreat Athena 1+ goals
86%
Floreat Athena 2+ goals
58%
Floreat Athena 3+ goals
31%
Perth Glory II 1+ goals
80%
Perth Glory II 2+ goals
48%
Perth Glory II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Floreat Athena (draw refunded)
58%
Perth Glory II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreat Athena at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.63 · 80 matches

Perth Glory II away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreat Athena attack 1.90 + Perth Glory II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.95

Perth Glory II attack 1.63 + Floreat Athena defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Floreat Athena scores more
45%
level
22%
Perth Glory II scores more
33%

Floreat Athena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Floreat Athena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Floreat Athena 0–1 Perth Glory II

Perth Glory II beat Floreat Athena 1-0 in Western Australia NPL on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at E & D Litis Stadium in Perth.