Perth Glory II 3–0 ECU Joondalup: Result & Stats

Perth Glory II

FT

3 – 0

ECU Joondalup

8/7/2021

Western Australia NPL · Round 18Crazy Domains Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Perth Glory II39%

×Draw23%

ECU Joondalup38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth Glory IIExpected goals in this matchECU Joondalup

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.63

Perth Glory II

1.65

ECU Joondalup

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 33 away

1.94

creates per match

1.33

1.93

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Perth Glory II

1.94

ECU Joondalup

1.33

allows per match

Perth Glory II

1.93

ECU Joondalup

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth Glory II+0.00on par

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory II ↓

ECU Joondalup →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Perth Glory II or draw

62%

Perth Glory II or ECU Joondalup

77%

Draw or ECU Joondalup

61%

Winning margin

Perth Glory II wins by 2+

20%

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Perth Glory II 1+ goals

81%

Perth Glory II 2+ goals

49%

Perth Glory II 3+ goals

23%

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

80%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

48%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory II (draw refunded)

51%

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.93 · 82 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory II attack 1.94 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.65

ECU Joondalup attack 1.33 + Perth Glory II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Perth Glory II scores more

39%

level

23%

ECU Joondalup scores more

38%

Perth Glory II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Perth Glory II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff