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ECU Joondalup vs Perth Glory II — Western Australia NPL 2019

ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
FT
2 – 2
Perth Glory II
Perth Glory II
4/6/2019Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 4ECU Joondalup A (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ECU Joondalup48%
×Draw22%
Perth Glory II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECU Joondalup
1.97
Perth Glory II
1.55

ECU Joondalup creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 86 away

creates per match

ECU Joondalup
1.94
Perth Glory II
1.63

allows per match

ECU Joondalup
1.48
Perth Glory II
2.01

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par
Perth Glory II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Perth Glory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw
69%
ECU Joondalup or Perth Glory II
78%
Draw or Perth Glory II
52%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
27%
Perth Glory II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
86%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
58%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
31%
Perth Glory II 1+ goals
79%
Perth Glory II 2+ goals
46%
Perth Glory II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
61%
Perth Glory II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Perth Glory II away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 1.94 + Perth Glory II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.97

Perth Glory II attack 1.63 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more
48%
level
22%
Perth Glory II scores more
31%

ECU Joondalup at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: ECU Joondalup 2–2 Perth Glory II

ECU Joondalup and Perth Glory II drew 2-2 in Western Australia NPL on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at ECU Joondalup A (Perth).