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Persis Solo vs Dewa United — Liga 1 2025

Persis Solo
Persis Solo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dewa United
Dewa United
12/17/2023Liga 1Liga 1 · Round 23Stadion Manahan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Persis Solo32%
×Draw35%
Dewa United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persis Solo
0.80
Dewa United
0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Persis Solo
1.00
Dewa United
0.60

allows per match

Persis Solo
1.00
Dewa United
0.60

finishing

Persis Solo+0.00on par
Dewa United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persis Solo ↓

Dewa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Persis Solo or draw
68%
Persis Solo or Dewa United
65%
Draw or Dewa United
68%

Winning margin

Persis Solo wins by 2+
10%
Dewa United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Persis Solo 1+ goals
55%
Persis Solo 2+ goals
19%
Persis Solo 3+ goals
5%
Dewa United 1+ goals
55%
Dewa United 2+ goals
19%
Dewa United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Persis Solo (draw refunded)
50%
Dewa United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persis Solo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Dewa United away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persis Solo attack 1.00 + Dewa United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Dewa United attack 0.60 + Persis Solo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Persis Solo scores more
32%
level
35%
Dewa United scores more
32%

Persis Solo at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Persis Solo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1: Persis Solo 1–2 Dewa United

Dewa United beat Persis Solo 2-1 in Liga 1 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Manahan in Surakarta.