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Dewa United vs Persis Solo — Liga 1 2025

Dewa United
Dewa United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Persis Solo
Persis Solo
12/21/2024Liga 1Liga 1 · Round 16Stadion Pakansari Bogor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dewa United66%
×Draw19%
Persis Solo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dewa United
2.23
Persis Solo
0.97

Dewa United creates 130% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dewa United
1.80
Persis Solo
1.33

allows per match

Dewa United
0.60
Persis Solo
2.67

finishing

Dewa United+0.00on par
Persis Solo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dewa United ↓

Persis Solo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dewa United or draw
85%
Dewa United or Persis Solo
81%
Draw or Persis Solo
34%

Winning margin

Dewa United wins by 2+
42%
Persis Solo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dewa United 1+ goals
89%
Dewa United 2+ goals
65%
Dewa United 3+ goals
38%
Persis Solo 1+ goals
62%
Persis Solo 2+ goals
25%
Persis Solo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dewa United (draw refunded)
81%
Persis Solo (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dewa United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Persis Solo away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dewa United attack 1.80 + Persis Solo defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Persis Solo attack 1.33 + Dewa United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dewa United scores more
66%
level
19%
Persis Solo scores more
15%

Dewa United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dewa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1: Dewa United 2–0 Persis Solo

Dewa United beat Persis Solo 2-0 in Liga 1 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pakansari Bogor in Cibinong.