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Persija Jakarta vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — AFC Cup 2018

Persija Jakarta
Persija Jakarta
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
4/10/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno (Jakarta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Persija Jakarta76%
×Draw16%
Johor Darul Takzim FC8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Persija Jakarta
2.29
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.57

Persija Jakarta creates 302% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Persija Jakarta
2.57
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.00

allows per match

Persija Jakarta
1.14
Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.00

finishing

Persija Jakarta+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persija Jakarta ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Persija Jakarta or draw
92%
Persija Jakarta or Johor Darul Takzim FC
84%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
24%

Winning margin

Persija Jakarta wins by 2+
52%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Persija Jakarta 1+ goals
90%
Persija Jakarta 2+ goals
66%
Persija Jakarta 3+ goals
40%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
43%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
11%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Persija Jakarta (draw refunded)
91%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persija Jakarta at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persija Jakarta attack 2.57 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 0.00 + Persija Jakarta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Persija Jakarta scores more
76%
level
16%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
8%

Persija Jakarta at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Persija Jakarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persija Jakarta 4 – 0 Johor Darul Takzim FC

Persija Jakarta beat Johor Darul Takzim FC 4-0 in AFC Cup on April 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno (Jakarta).