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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Persija Jakarta — AFC Cup 2018

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Persija Jakarta
Persija Jakarta
2/14/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium (Johor Bahru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC61%
×Draw20%
Persija Jakarta19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.27
Persija Jakarta
1.21

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.67
Persija Jakarta
1.43

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.00
Persija Jakarta
1.86

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Persija Jakarta+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Persija Jakarta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
81%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Persija Jakarta
80%
Draw or Persija Jakarta
39%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
39%
Persija Jakarta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
90%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
66%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
39%
Persija Jakarta 1+ goals
70%
Persija Jakarta 2+ goals
34%
Persija Jakarta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
76%
Persija Jakarta (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Persija Jakarta away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.67 + Persija Jakarta defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Persija Jakarta attack 1.43 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
61%
level
20%
Persija Jakarta scores more
19%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Johor Darul Takzim FC 3–0 Persija Jakarta

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Persija Jakarta 3-0 in AFC Cup on February 14, 2018.

The match was played at Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium (Johor Bahru).